Hurricanes in the Pacific and a Super El Niño: Is this the new normal?
California had a weird summer: blistering heat, nonstop surf, and warm, borderline tropical water. Don’t get us wrong, we enjoyed it. Every day felt like a surf trip. We surfed in boardshorts, fished offshore, and enjoyed an unprecedented run of swell that’s by far some of the best consecutive surf we’ve seen in our lifetime. But hurricanes in the Pacific and tropical sea life off the coast are a bit odd for California. With a super El Niño on the horizon, we have to ask ourselves: what can we expect this winter, and is this the new normal?
What Does the Super El Niño Mean
As we mentioned previously, El Niño refers to a climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific become warmer than average. These warming changes alter atmospheric circulation, shifting the jet stream and changing the paths storms typically follow, affecting everything from snowfall in the Rockies to swell along the California coast. In California, this typically means a more active storm cycle, which can translate to more swell in the ocean and more snow in the mountains. A Super El Niño, while not a recognized scientific term, refers to abnormally strong El Niño patterns, often with sea surface temperature anomalies of around 2°C or greater in the equatorial Pacific.
Are Hurricanes in the Pacific Part of El Niño or the New Normal
As of late September 2026, there have been 16 named storms in the Eastern Pacific Basin, including six hurricanes, three of which reached Category 3 or higher. For comparison, a typical year sees about 12 named storms by late September, including six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. So, it’s not necessarily the number of hurricanes that has been unusual this year. It’s the amount of energy in the system. Overall storm energy in the Eastern Pacific has been well above normal, while unusually warm water has extended farther north along the West Coast.
El Niño didn’t cause each hurricane individually, but it helped create conditions that allowed tropical storms to flourish. El Niño warms the tropical Pacific and shifts atmospheric circulation, creating an environment that can be more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Eastern Pacific.
For California surfers, those storms don’t need to come anywhere near land to have an impact. Hurricanes generate powerful winds over the open ocean, and when those winds blow across a large enough area for long enough, they create swell that can travel hundreds or even thousands of miles. A well-positioned Eastern Pacific hurricane can send long-period south or southeast swell toward California, turning an otherwise quiet summer forecast into several days of surf. Storm track matters enormously: a powerful hurricane moving in the wrong direction may send little usable swell toward California, while a weaker storm with the right position, movement, and wind field can light up south-facing breaks.
The Kelvin Wave Connection
There’s another kind of wave worth watching this season, and it won’t show up as a set at your local break. During El Niño, weakened trade winds and bursts of westerly winds can send downwelling Kelvin waves east along the equator. When they reach the Americas, part of that signal travels north along the coast. As NOAA explains, these waves temporarily raise coastal sea level and deepen the thermocline, the boundary between warmer surface water and colder water below. That can keep cold, nutrient-rich water farther from the surface and contribute to coastal warming. Higher background water levels let high tides and storm waves reach farther inland, increasing the risk of flooding and erosion. NOAA also distinguishes this El Niño influence from the marine heatwave already off California. The two can overlap, prolonging warm conditions and adding pressure to coastal ecosystems.
The True Impact of El Niño
While we’ve already seen arguably the best run of swell ever in SoCal and the promise of a phenomenal snow year is on the horizon, the Super El Niño's true impact will likely be the catastrophic ecological impacts that have already begun. For the first time in recorded history, the Pacific has been warm enough for a sea turtle to lay eggs on a California beach. Hurricane Marie 2.0 may have sent Malibu its day of days, but it also triggered severe coastal destruction across Southern California. The compounding effects of hurricane storm surge and massive swell washed away enormous amounts of sand, destroyed coastal infrastructure, demolished homes, and led to dozens of evacuations.
As these words are typed, Hurricane Polo and Nolo and tropical storms Odalys and Rachel are spinning offshore. Each storm is producing massive amounts of groundswell that will travel thousands of miles to the delight of surfers across the Pacific. These storms will also severely impact the Hawaiian Islands and the already storm-battered California coast. While this Super El Niño may be bittersweet, there’s no denying the serious adventure potential this winter. Whether you’re chasing swell or powder, make sure you have the tools you need.
